PACE Applied Housing Research Initiative Distinguished Speaker Event
Dr. Karen Chapple
Director of the School of Cities & Professor of Geography and Planning
University of Toronto
“New Development for Whom? How New Housing Production Affects Displacement and Replacement in the Bay Area”
The PACE Applied Housing Research Initiative Distinguished Speaker Series series is supported by a generous gift from Merritt Community Capital Corporation.
The ever-growing concerns surrounding gentrification, displacement, and the affordable housing crisis afflicting many US housing markets have resulted in a wide range of policy and programmatic solutions. One area of solutions focuses on the production of more housing, which, in theory, helps moderate housing costs, make housing more affordable to more households, and relieves displacement pressures. Few studies, however, have examined the extent to which new production mitigates direct and exclusionary displacement at a neighborhood scale. This study seeks to fill this gap and advance urban policymaking by leveraging unique, fine-grained datasets in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area—the ZTRAX sales and assessor data from Zillow, the California Housing Partnership Corporation Annual Progress Report, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax, and Infogroup Residential Historical Data. We examine how local concentrations of new market-rate construction and subsidized development affect residential displacement and replacement over the last two decades. We assess how new housing affects whether residents move out of neighborhoods, the types of neighborhoods to which they move, and the residents who move into areas after new housing is built. We analyze how this differs by socioeconomic status and the timing of these effects. Our results have important implications for understanding the effectiveness of new development in stabilizing communities and reducing broader patterns of inequality.